Building conviction in portfolio management

Right now, AI feels like magic. But history has taught us magic never lasts.

Every tech revolution follows the same pattern - electricity, the internet, mobile phones - starting as a miracle and capturing imaginations with sheer possibility. Over time it spreads, becoming more accessible and essential. Eventually, it recedes into the background, invisible and often taken for granted. 

The question isn't whether AI will reach that point, it's who survives when it does.

What does a crowded AI market mean for companies?

We've seen this before. During the dot-com boom, the internet promised infinite possibility. Between 1998 and 2000, over 40,000 startups launched, each convinced it had found the future. Capital flowed freely, and everyone wanted a piece of what came next. 

But then the bubble burst: Nasdaq plummeted 80%, and 95% of those companies vanished. Not because the internet failed - the technology was real and transformative - but because the ideas did. Venture capital can fund innovation, but it can't create meaning.

Today, we’re living through a similar moment with AI. In just 5 years, 70,000 startups have emerged and they are all built on the same stack, offering variations on the same promise and all racing to prove they are faster, smarter, more efficient.

When this happens, the underlying infrastructure becomes shared, lowering barriers to entry and opening the floodgates for new products. But instead of fostering diversity, what emerges often feels familiar, leaving users with no reason to choose one over another. The sameness is spreading as quickly as the magic itself. 

We call it convergence, though it feels more like déjà vu. Here's the pattern we have have traced for decades: 

Magic → Mass Adoption → Utility → Sameness.